Brazil’s relationship with China could grow even stronger after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a steep new tariff on Brazilian imports — a move that analysts say may drive the South American nation further into Beijing’s economic orbit.
During a recent visit to China, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called the two countries' ties “indestructible.” That bond might deepen further now that the U.S. plans to impose a 50% duty on Brazilian products starting August 1. The decision, widely seen as politically charged, has sparked concern across Brazil’s business and political landscape.
Tulio Cariello of the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC) noted that Brazil currently enjoys more fruitful relations with China than with the United States. Trump's announcement was particularly shocking because it followed earlier plans for a more modest 10% tariff — which many in Brazil had seen as an opportunity to increase exports.
Industries such as aviation, auto parts, coffee, and orange juice — key Brazilian exports to the U.S. — are expected to feel the brunt of the increase. The move also comes shortly after the BRICS summit in Rio, where member nations criticized rising trade barriers as inconsistent with World Trade Organization rules.
Trump’s letter justifying the tariff connected it directly to former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, referring to legal proceedings against him as a "witch hunt." Bolsonaro — often called the "Trump of the tropics" — is accused of attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss.
Economists were quick to point out Trump’s misleading claims about a U.S. trade deficit with Brazil. In reality, Brazil runs a trade deficit with the U.S. of around $7.4 billion, while enjoying a surplus of $31 billion with China.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the tariffs, warning against the use of trade measures as political tools. Experts say such unpredictable decisions from Washington could damage America’s reputation as a stable economic partner — while positioning China as a more consistent and strategic ally.
“China hasn’t shown a pattern of abrupt changes in its trade policy,” noted Mauricio Weiss, an economics professor at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul.
China has been Brazil’s biggest export destination since 2009, and investments between the two countries have continued to rise. On Monday, Brazil’s Ministry of Finance announced it would open a tax advisory office in Beijing — only the fifth such office worldwide — emphasizing the significance of their economic relationship.
Since 2007, China has invested more than $73 billion in Brazil, channeling funds into sectors like energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and technology. Weiss noted that while the U.S. still has more total investments in Brazil, Chinese funding tends to be more coordinated and strategically aligned with government priorities.
Chinese brands are also gaining traction in Brazil. For instance, electric vehicles from BYD — a Chinese company — now account for 70% of Brazil’s EV market. Symbolically, BYD recently acquired a massive factory in Bahia previously owned by Ford.
The two nations have even discussed plans for a transcontinental rail line linking Brazil to the Chinese-funded port of Chancay in Peru. That port, launched in late 2024, is expected to attract over $3.5 billion in investment over the next decade — further solidifying China's economic footprint in Latin America.
Other countries in the region — including Peru, Colombia, and Chile — are also moving closer to China, wary of Trump’s return and his controversial rhetoric, such as his threat to “take back” the Panama Canal.
Still, some experts point out that a closer relationship with China doesn’t necessarily mean Brazil can shift all of its U.S.-bound exports to Asia. “China and the U.S. import very different goods from Brazil,” said Livio Ribeiro of the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
Yet, increased Chinese investment could help Brazil expand its industrial base and diversify its economy. “If Brazil can start producing more of its goods domestically and serving nearby South American markets, it could lead to significant growth,” Weiss added.
During his May trip to China, Lula stressed that China and Brazil are “indispensable partners” and share a common vision. “Together, we can help the Global South gain the respect it deserves on the world stage,” Lula said.
"Edited and published by Veritas Global News to maintain accuracy and originality"
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