🇯🇵 Japan's PM Faces Political Turmoil After Harsh Upper House Election Blow

 

Tokyo, July 20, 2025 — Japan’s political landscape was rocked Sunday night as exit polls suggested Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition is set to lose control of the upper house — a result that could bring instability at a time when Tokyo is under intense pressure to secure a key trade deal with the United States.

While the election does not directly threaten Ishiba’s government, it weakens his already fragile hold on power after a previous defeat in the more powerful lower house just months earlier.

"I solemnly accept this harsh result," said Ishiba in a televised address, acknowledging the public frustration.

What the Numbers Say

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito needed at least 50 of the 124 seats contested in the 248-seat upper house. Exit polls by public broadcaster NHK show they might end up with as few as 32 — a potentially historic low for the coalition since its formation in 1999.

Other media projections suggested a slightly better but still damaging outcome of 41–43 seats. If the final result falls below 46, it would mark the coalition’s worst performance in over two decades.

Economic Pressure Mounts

The timing couldn’t be worse. Japan faces an August 1 deadline to finalize a trade agreement with the United States or face new tariffs that could severely damage its exports.

In response, Ishiba pledged to stay on as prime minister, stating:

“We are engaged in extremely critical tariff negotiations… We must never ruin these negotiations.”

Japan is already navigating fragile economic waters, burdened with the world’s largest debt pile. Investors have begun expressing unease about Japan’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline amid global economic uncertainty.

Rising Discontent, Rising Prices

At the heart of voters’ anger is a sharp rise in living costs — especially the price of basic commodities like rice — and the government’s refusal to cut the consumption tax.

“The LDP was playing defense… Opposition parties seized on inflation and hammered that message home,” said David Boling of Eurasia Group.

Opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party are expected to gain up to 30 seats, capitalizing on their promise to increase social spending and cut taxes.

The Rise of Far-Right Sanseito

Perhaps the biggest shock of the night came from the far-right Sanseito party, which emerged from YouTube channels during the pandemic, spreading anti-immigrant and conspiracy narratives. Once seen as fringe, the party is now forecast to win up to 15 seats — a dramatic rise from its previous single seat.

“There are no Japanese around me anymore, only foreigners,” said 25-year-old Yu Nagai, a Sanseito voter in Tokyo. “I feel we are being overlooked.”

With Japan’s foreign-born population now at a record 3.8 million (about 3% of the total), Sanseito’s rhetoric is resonating with those anxious about immigration and identity in the world’s oldest society.

What Lies Ahead?

Political analysts believe the ruling coalition’s performance may trigger internal leadership challenges within the LDP and make future negotiations — both domestic and international — more difficult.

As Japan approaches its critical trade deadline with the U.S. and stares down public discontent, the coming weeks may shape the nation's future far beyond this single election. 

"Edited and published by Veritas Global News to maintain accuracy and originality"