Washington, D.C. — July 24, 2025
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has stirred fresh debate after claiming that former President Donald Trump's aggressive trade tariffs could eliminate the national deficit. During an interview on CBS's Face the Nation, Lutnick stated that the U.S. government is now collecting nearly $30 billion per month from tariffs. He added, "This is going to pay off our deficit. This is going to make America stronger."
However, leading economists and official data suggest this claim doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.
What the Numbers Really Say
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that even over the next 10 years, the estimated $2.8 trillion in total tariff revenue will fall far short of covering the $21.8 trillion federal deficit expected during the same period. Trump’s latest "megabill" signed on July 4 is forecast to add another $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the decade.
Even with the new tariff rates — ranging from 20% to 40% on products from 21 countries starting August 1 — the math doesn't support Lutnick's optimism.
Tariff Collection So Far
According to the Treasury Department and data from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, the U.S. collected:
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$100 billion in tariffs so far in 2025
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$27 billion in June 2025 alone
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Just $6 billion in June 2024 before Trump’s tariff overhaul
At this pace, projected revenues would total around $2.52 trillion over a decade — still well below the growing national deficit.
Experts Cast Doubt
Steve Ellis, president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, remarked,
“I can't envision a scenario where tariff revenues alone eliminate the deficit.”
Moreover, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that Trump's authority to impose many tariffs is under legal scrutiny. A recent Court of International Trade ruling challenged the administration’s tariff moves. If upheld on appeal, many tariffs may be rolled back or invalidated.
Even if legal, a future U.S. president could undo the tariffs by executive order, limiting their financial impact to a 4-year window, not 10.
Verdict
Although current tariff collections are increasing dramatically, they are not nearly enough to offset the United States' massive long-term deficits. Experts and official projections agree: tariffs alone will not balance the books.
"Edited and published by Veritas Global News to maintain accuracy and originality"
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